This project tracks major promises, predictions, commitments, and, at times, strong convictions made by U.S. political and media figures—not just presidents or senators, but also talking heads on TV and other influential voices on the left, right, and all the noisy corners of the political map.
Each entry includes the original statement (with verifiable sources), and later it's marked as either True or False based on the outcome. A brief explanation is also provided for why it was rated that way. Over time, each public figure accumulates a record showing how many of their claims were accurate versus misleading or unfulfilled.
The idea is to make it easier for people to see who's actually doing what they say—and who's just talking. That said, it's not always black and white. Some promises are hard to measure or depend on other people to make happen. There's also a risk of bias, both in choosing which promises to track and how they're judged. Still, with transparency and solid sourcing, it can be a useful tool for keeping public figures honest.
Verifying political promises and predictions requires careful research and consistent methodology. We gather original statements from a range of sources depending on the type of public figure involved. For politicians and high-profile media figures, we use primary sources like official campaign websites, C-SPAN, YouTube videos, and archived pages from sites like archive.ph. When direct quotes are unavailable, we rely on credible secondary sources such as major news articles that accurately cite the original statements.
Once a claim or commitment is logged, we follow up with real-world outcomes to determine whether it was fulfilled. If a figure explicitly promises something—like Donald Trump pledging to end a war in 24 hours (and later in 100 days) or Joe Biden vowing to cancel $20,000 in student debt—we assess the outcome strictly. If the action doesn't happen, or is blocked and not replaced by a functionally equivalent action, the claim is marked False. For example, Biden's original student debt cancellation plan was struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court, so that commitment is labeled False, even though he later introduced the SAVE Plan, which is treated and assessed as a separate promise.
We aim to be as objective and thorough as possible. No half-credit. If it didn't happen, it doesn't count.